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Union Pacific's Q4 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates, Down Y/Y
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Key Takeaways
UNP reported Q4 EPS and revenues below estimates, with both declining year over year due to lower volumes.
UNP saw freight revenue dip as Premium volumes fell, partially offset by gains in Bulk and Industrial.
UNP delivered a lower operating ratio and guided for mid-single-digit EPS growth and capex near $3.3B in 2026.
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) reported disappointing fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein the company’s earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Quarterly earnings (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.86 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 and decreased 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Operating revenues of $6.08 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.14 billion and fell 1% on a year-over-year basis, owing to lower volume, partially offset by core pricing gains and fuel surcharge revenue. Revenue carloads declined 4% year over year.
Freight revenues (accounting for 94.5% of the top line) fell 1% year over year to $5.75 billion. Other revenues decreased 2% year over year to $326 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The operating income was down 5% year over year at $2.40 billion. Total operating expenses of $3.68 billion inched up 2% year over year. Fuel expenses increased 2% year over year. Expenses on purchased services and materials increased 8% on a year-over-year basis, while expenses on compensation and benefits decreased 3% year over year.
The operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) in the fourth quarter of 2025, on an adjusted basis, declined 190 basis points year over year to 60%.
Union Pacific Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Bulk (Grain & grain products, Fertilizer, Food & refrigerated, Coal & renewables) freight revenues were $1.91 billion, which increased 3% on a year-over-year basis. Segmental revenue carloads increased 3% year over year.
Industrial freight revenues came in at $2.11 billion, up 1% year over year. Segmental revenue carloads increased 1% to $561 million year over year.
Freight revenues in the Premium division were $1.72 billion, down 6% year over year. Premium revenue carloads decreased 10% year over year.
UNP’s Liquidity
Union Pacific exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.26 billion compared with $808 billion at the prior-quarter end. Debt (due after a year) of $30.29 billion was flat sequentially.
2026 Outlook
For 2026, earnings per share are expected to register growth of mid-single digit, consistent with attaining the three-year CAGR target of high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027.
UNP further anticipates operating ratio improvement. Capital expenditure is expected to be approximately $3.3 billion. UNP aims to continue generating strong cash while increasing annual dividend payouts.
Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.
Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown, mainly in the domestic segment, consistent with the company's disclosure last month.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.90 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81 and improved 24.2% year over year.
Total operating revenues of $3.09 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12 billion and were down 1.6% year over year. JBHT’s fourth-quarter revenue performance was hurt by a 2% and 4% decline in revenue per load excluding fuel surcharge revenue in Intermodal (JBI) and Truckload (JBT), respectively, a 1% decrease in average trucks in Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), and a 7% and 2% decline in load volume in Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) and JBI, respectively. The decrease in revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, was partially offset by a 15% increase in volume in JBT, a 1% uptick in productivity, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, in DCS, and an increase in revenue per load in ICS. Total operating revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, decreased 2% year over year.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL - Free Report) reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.10 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.98 but declined 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies within the guided range of $3.00-$3.50.
Operating revenues of $15.4 billion outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate marginally by 0.1% and increased 4.8% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.4% of the top line) increased 4.9% year over year to $13.9 billion. UAL flights transported 45,679 passengers in the fourth quarter, up 3% year over year.
Cargo revenues fell 6% year over year to $490 million. Revenues from other sources rose 9.1% year over year to $981 million.
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Union Pacific's Q4 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates, Down Y/Y
Key Takeaways
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) reported disappointing fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein the company’s earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Quarterly earnings (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.86 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 and decreased 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Operating revenues of $6.08 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.14 billion and fell 1% on a year-over-year basis, owing to lower volume, partially offset by core pricing gains and fuel surcharge revenue. Revenue carloads declined 4% year over year.
Freight revenues (accounting for 94.5% of the top line) fell 1% year over year to $5.75 billion. Other revenues decreased 2% year over year to $326 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The operating income was down 5% year over year at $2.40 billion. Total operating expenses of $3.68 billion inched up 2% year over year. Fuel expenses increased 2% year over year. Expenses on purchased services and materials increased 8% on a year-over-year basis, while expenses on compensation and benefits decreased 3% year over year.
The operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) in the fourth quarter of 2025, on an adjusted basis, declined 190 basis points year over year to 60%.
Union Pacific Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Union Pacific Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Union Pacific Corporation Quote
UNP’s Segmental Highlights
Bulk (Grain & grain products, Fertilizer, Food & refrigerated, Coal & renewables) freight revenues were $1.91 billion, which increased 3% on a year-over-year basis. Segmental revenue carloads increased 3% year over year.
Industrial freight revenues came in at $2.11 billion, up 1% year over year. Segmental revenue carloads increased 1% to $561 million year over year.
Freight revenues in the Premium division were $1.72 billion, down 6% year over year. Premium revenue carloads decreased 10% year over year.
UNP’s Liquidity
Union Pacific exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.26 billion compared with $808 billion at the prior-quarter end. Debt (due after a year) of $30.29 billion was flat sequentially.
2026 Outlook
For 2026, earnings per share are expected to register growth of mid-single digit, consistent with attaining the three-year CAGR target of high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027.
UNP further anticipates operating ratio improvement. Capital expenditure is expected to be approximately $3.3 billion. UNP aims to continue generating strong cash while increasing annual dividend payouts.
Currently, UNP carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Q4 Performances of Other Transportation Companies
Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.
Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown, mainly in the domestic segment, consistent with the company's disclosure last month.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.90 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81 and improved 24.2% year over year.
Total operating revenues of $3.09 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12 billion and were down 1.6% year over year. JBHT’s fourth-quarter revenue performance was hurt by a 2% and 4% decline in revenue per load excluding fuel surcharge revenue in Intermodal (JBI) and Truckload (JBT), respectively, a 1% decrease in average trucks in Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), and a 7% and 2% decline in load volume in Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) and JBI, respectively. The decrease in revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, was partially offset by a 15% increase in volume in JBT, a 1% uptick in productivity, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, in DCS, and an increase in revenue per load in ICS. Total operating revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, decreased 2% year over year.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL - Free Report) reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.10 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.98 but declined 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies within the guided range of $3.00-$3.50.
Operating revenues of $15.4 billion outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate marginally by 0.1% and increased 4.8% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.4% of the top line) increased 4.9% year over year to $13.9 billion. UAL flights transported 45,679 passengers in the fourth quarter, up 3% year over year.
Cargo revenues fell 6% year over year to $490 million. Revenues from other sources rose 9.1% year over year to $981 million.